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Posted by Bret Devereaux

This is the second part (I) of our series looking at the structure of the Carthaginian army. As we discussed last time, while Carthage has an unfair reputation for being an ‘un-military’ society, its military system was one of the highest performing in the ancient Mediterranean, able to produce vast and effective armies waging war on multiple fronts for prolonged periods.

Last time we surveyed the components of that military and then took a closer look at the role of Carthaginian citizen soldiers. What we noted was that Carthaginian citizen soldiers formed an important part of Carthage’s armies early in its history, and in its last decade, but at its height were generally not include in ‘expeditionary’ Carthaginian armies. I supposed that this is because Carthaginian citizen soldiers had their service restricted to Carthage’s North African homeland – because almost every time we gain visibility into Carthage’s wars there, we see citizen soldiers – but the evidence for this is extremely limited. What matters for us is that by the third century, Carthaginian citizens no longer make up a significant amount of Carthage’s military force outside of North Africa (though a handful still serve as officers).

That of course leads to the question: if Carthaginians weren’t the bedrock foundation of Carthage’s armies, who was? And this week, we’ll get to that answer, looking at the forces Carthage drew from North Africa. Our sources term them mercenaries, but we have more than enough reason to doubt that.

But first, as always, raising large armies of mercenaries, subject conscripts, vassal warlords and allies is expensive! If you too want to help me invade Italy with a multi-ethnic army of diverse origins in a doomed effort to stop the Roman Republic, you can help by supporting this project over at Patreon. If you want updates whenever a new post appears or want to hear my more bite-sized musings on history, security affairs and current events, you can follow me on Bluesky (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social). I am also active on Threads (bretdevereaux) and maintain a de minimis presence on Twitter (@bretdevereaux).

Conscripting Africans

Returning briefly to our schematic of the Carthaginian army in 215, the second largest single component of Carthage’s roughly 160,000 men under arms in that year were 50,000 African infantry, joined by at least 11,000 African and Numidian cavalry. We’ll discuss the Numidians next week for reasons that will be clear then. But it is clear that the backbone of Carthage’s armies were these African infantrymen.

Our Latin sources (like Livy) term these fellows Afri, ‘Africans,’ while our Greek sources, like Diodorus and Polybius, will call generally them λίβυες, ‘Libyans,’ though we ought to be clear here that most of these men are coming from what today is Tunisia, rather than Libya. At the end of the First Punic War, Polybius notes that these men made up the largest part of Carthage’s army, returning in defeat from Sicily (Polyb. 1.67.7) and as noted above they are present in substantial numbers in Carthage’s armies in the Second Punic War. It is hardly the first time for these fellows, though: North Africans are reported in Carthage’s armies from the Battle of Himera on forward.

I should note, I am going to pretty consistently call these fellows from here on in ‘Africans’ or ‘North Africans.’ First off, it is very clear that when our Greek sources say λίβυες, they mean the same thing as our Latin sources saying Afri (indeed, often in cases where Livy is just straight up translating passages of Polybius with only modest embroidering, the equivalence is clear); these are just two different languages’ terms for the same people. But I think ‘Africans’ may be more helpful here for the modern reader for two reasons: first, most of Carthage’s African infantry does not come from the territory of the modern country of Libya; most of them come from what today is Tunisia, so one doesn’t want to give the incorrect sense that these troops are ‘Libyan’ in the modern sense of the country of Libya (some of them are, but most are not). Second, I think ‘African’ also gives a sense of the wider notion of these fellows as primarily being from Africa – some are indigenous Berbers, some are Phoenician settlers, some are of mixed heritage and – to go by recent DNA studies – some are likely settlers of Aegean extraction, who have substantially adopted Punic (=Phoenician) culture. So they’re all Africans in the sense that they live in Africa (both in the modern sense of the continent and the ancient sense of the region around Carthage), but a relatively diverse group.

This map by Jona Lendering from Livius.org gives a good sense of Carthage’s empire at the start of the Second Punic War (218). In particular, it is handy for giving a proper sense of the part of Africa Carthage controlled. When we say ‘Africans’ here, we’re really talking about the inhabitants of the western half of that area of control, primarily – modern day Tunisia and north-western Libya. That’s also the territory the Romans will call ‘Africa’ (as in the Roman province); Carthaginian control, as you can see, only projects a relatively short distance inland, but that large chunky area around and south of Carthage was fairly densely peopled.

Our reception of these troops is, alas, I think quite badly bent by Polybius who – in driving some of his own arguments – allows some critical misconceptions to fester in his writing. Polybius, as a source, is usually relatively trustworthy, but while Polybius will almost never lie to you, he will often allow you to believe things that aren’t strictly speaking true – Polybius is a master of ‘lying with the truth,’ as it were and this is one case.

We’ve actually discussed this before, but to recap briefly: Polybius describes Carthage’s African troops as μισθοφόροι, misthophoroi, which has a broad meaning (‘wage-bearing, wage-receiving’) and a narrow meaning (‘mercenary’) and here, as in a few other places, Polybius is happy to be technically correct with the first meaning and then let the reader assume the second meaning (which is wrong). That’s because Polybius seems to be – we don’t have all of his work, but this seems to be a thread of it – arguing for the superiority of citizen soldiers over mercenaries in an effort to get the Greeks of his own day to reform their own militaries to rely more on the former than the latter. Carthage thus provides an opportunity for Polybius to drive his ‘mercenaries are bad’ argument and he does so, fudging the terminology as necessary.

Because Polybius is generally so trusted, that has led generations of scholars to carelessly assume that Carthage’s armies – and their North African components – were mercenary in nature, but that assumption is broadly wrong.1

Instead, Diodorus Siculus gives us a remarkable picture of Carthaginian recruitment in the early 400s, describing Carthaginian musters in 410 and 406. In 410 (Diod. Sic. 13.44.6), the Carthaginian muster has three phases: first there is mercenary recruitment in Spain – signaled by the word ξενολογεῖν, xenologein ‘to recruit foreigners.’ Then Carthaginian citizens are mustered with καταγράφειν, katagraphein, ‘to write down, register, record.’ If that seems an odd way to muster someone, it has the same basic meaning and etymology as our own ‘conscript’ which comes from con+scriptus, ‘to write together.’2 We actually use the same idioms, we’ve just forgotten that we do: someone who is conscripted is written down (in a list of soldiers), someone who ‘enrolls’ or is ‘enrolled’ in the military is being added to the roll (list) of names. So we would say Carthaginian soldiers here are being enrolled. Finally, Carthage’s North African subjects are mustered with ἐπιλέγειν, epilegein, ‘picked out, called by name.’

That last word is striking, because that isn’t a process of taking volunteers: the North African troops are being picked, in this case by Carthage’s generals. In the muster of 406 (Diod. Sic. 13.80.1-4), Diodorus shifts his vocabulary a bit and this time it is the Africans who are katagraphein‘d into the army, this time explicitly by Carthaginian generals who head out into non-Carthaginian North African subject communities to conscript soldiers. In short these soldiers are paid conscripts, serving (as we’ll see) long terms, their recruitment presumably part of the deal Carthage imposed on subject North African communities.

I should note that older scholarship3 often supposed that perhaps this system was later superceded, that Carthage may have stopped conscripting Africans and instead imposed harsher taxes and started hiring mercenaries. This would make Polybius right, but the problem is that no source says this and as noted before, it isn’t necessary either: Polybius is generally slippery with the term misthophoros. As a result, modern scholars tend to reject this argument and instead view Carthage’s African infantry in the third century (that is, during the Punic and Mercenary Wars) as paid conscripts rather than volunteer mercenaries.4 And I think that is probably correct, that these are troops levied from Carthage’s North African dependencies – probably with a mix of incentives and compulsion – who are then paid for their continued service and loyalty.

In terms of the makeup of these communities, they were clearly a mix: some of these are Phoenician colonial foundations, while others were indigenous Libyan towns, whose population would have been broadly Berber. In terms of the incoming settlers, recent genetic work has suggested that Phoenician colonization drew very widely, with Punic settlements often showing a lot of Sicilian and Aegean (read: Greek) population in the mix too and actually very little Punic ancestry. That latter point puts me a bit on guard, because our sources are very clear that they understand a lot of these populations to be Phoenician (=Punic) by culture and descent and to have cultural and familial ties back to the Levant and Syria and the material culture archaeology seems to confirm this. More work is clearly going to be necessary here: the c. 200 remains analyzed in the above-linked study is a big sample size for this kind of work, but could easily be thrown off by something as simple as different burial practices. That said, we know there was mixing between the indigenous Berber and settler-colonial populations and our sources sometimes pick out specific groups as being ‘Liby-Phoenician’ (λιβυφοίνικες in Greek; libyphoenices in Latin), ethnically blended groups mixing Phoenician and Berber heritage.

Terms of Service

Naturally, given our sources, we don’t have a great window into what the ‘terms’ of this military service were, but there are a few things we can sketch out. First, it seems like Carthage equips these soldiers out of its own stores. Appian (Pun. 80) gives the startlingly figure that prior to the Third Punic War (so Carthage has already been stripped of most of its empire by this point!), Carthage turned out 200,000 military panoplies (that is, sets of equipment); the number is surely exaggerated, but even a tenth of that number would imply large state armories in Carthage for maintaining its armies which – given that Carthaginian citizens don’t really serve outside of Africa – must be intended for this African ‘backbone’ force. It may also explain why, when Carthaginian citizens do serve, they seem indistinguishable from Carthage’s African levies (e.g. Plut. Tim. 27.5): they’re being equipped out of the same armories. So if you want to know what these guys carried, you can largely lean on the previous post for our evidence for Carthaginian citizen troops.

Via the British Museum (inv. 127214), a fifth century Phoenician scarab showing a warrior wearing a cuirass, greaves, a helmet, a large (round?) shield and carrying a spear, found in Sardinia. I’m reusing this because, again, we have almost no images of Carthaginian troops in their gear, making this one of the few visual reference points for what Carthaginian African or Citizen infantry might have looked like, in this case in the early 400s. You can see the shield isn’t quite a hoplite’s aspis – its shape is somewhat different – but otherwise, in heavy armor, with a large helmet, greaves and a spear, this fellow is clearly pretty heavy infantry, a match for any other heavy infantryman.

Mostly, this means that Carthage’s African troops served as heavy infantry, like Carthaginian citizens did. That’s certainly how Hannibal uses them: they are his heaviest infantry and form the backbone of his army. It also explains why they could loot Roman heavy infantry equipment and eventually reequip along those lines without a serious change in how they fought (Polyb. 3.114.1; Livy 22.46.4). Beyond that, it is almost impossible to give much detail to their equipment. Plutarch describes the Carthaginian battle line in 341 as having leukaspides, ‘white aspides,’ implying their shields were akin to the Greek aspis (round, dished) which fits with some of the very limited representational evidence we have, but perhaps with covers in hide rather than bronze (Plut. Tim. 27.4; 28.1). Later, Appian describes the Carthaginians during the Third Punic War as having thureoi (= the Roman scutum), so they may have switched to the Gallic/Roman oval shield at some point (App. Pun. 93). But on both cases these writers are not anything like eyewitnesses and give few details, so they could also both be wrong.

Soldiers from Libya also had a reputation as highly capable skirmish troops using javelins and we see hints of this too. Hannibal has a group of soldiers whose origin is never clarified, Polybius refers to as lonchophoroi (λογχοφόροι), lonche-bearers. This term has caused no end of problems, because W.R. Paton translates it as ‘pikemen’ (frustratingly un-fixed in the revised Paton, Walbank and Habicht (2010-2012) translation) leading a range of modern writers, especially popular ones, to misunderstand and imagine these fellows as Hellenistic-style sarisa infantry. But the lonche (λόγχη) is not a sarisa; the Greeks use this word very broadly to describe non-Greek spears, but most often to indicate kinds of dual-purpose thrusting-and-throwing weapons used by lighter infantry and cavalry. Arrian uses the word of the spears wielded by the Tyrians – fellow Phoenicians! – fighting Alexander at Tyre (Arr. Anab. 2.23.5) and Appian reports the Carthaginians preparing lonche for the Third Punic War (App. Pun. 93).

So these aren’t pikes – Carthage never utilized a Hellenistic-style pike formation – but rather a lighter dual-use spear. And let me just repeat that because I encounter this misconception all the time, so for the folks in the back: Carthage never utilized a Hellenistic-style pike formation and indeed, Carthage’s own tradition of close-order heavy infantry may also not have been a direct imitation or development from the Greek hoplite tradition either (the Greeks were hardly the only culture to stumble on the idea of ‘close-order infantry with spears and round shields‘). And indeed, if one looks even a little closely, the lonchophoroi are clearly a light infantry formation, generally deployed in a mixed group with Hannibal’s other elite light infantry, his Balearian slingers. We also get a reference to “light armed Balearians and Africans” at the Battle of Baecula with a different Carthaginian army, suggesting this sort of light infantry pairing may have been something of a standard (Livy 27.18.7).

So while most African infantry in Carthaginian service served as armored heavy infantry fighting in close-order, a small subset served as elite light infantry using lighter spears and often deployed alongside slingers. In this sense, the lonchophoroi may have filled a very similar role to Rome’s own velites: an integrated light-infantry javelin force that might scout or screen the main heavy infantry force. Hannibal’s combined force of Balearians and lonchophoroi at Trebia was 8,000, compared to probably something like 12,000 African ‘heavies,’ so there might have been something like 2 or 3 African ‘heavies’ for each light lonchophoros, which is quite similar to the Roman legion’s ratio of 2.5 heavy infantrymen (hastati, principes, triarii) to each veles.

Once recruited and equipped, these fellows evidently stayed in service for some time, perhaps for the duration of the campaign for which they were raised. They were probably gathered in Carthage itself to be marshaled and equipped. Notably, Polybius tells us that the families and possessions of the Carthaginian army returning from Sicily were initially waiting in Carthage itself (Polyb. 1.66), so it seems like these troops might leave their families in Carthage while out on campaign.

It’s also clear these soldiers were paid, though we don’t know the pay rates. What we do know, again from Polybius, is that like other mercenaries, most of their pay – their misthos (wages) as distinct from their sitos/sitonion/sitometria (maintenance pay) – seems to have been due at discharge, at the end of a campaign. That was, indeed, the problem that Carthage slammed into at the end of the First Punic War which led to the Mercenary War: the war being over, the arrears of their army suddenly came due at a moment when Carthage itself was basically bankrupt. That in turn might explain the willingness of African communities to put up with this conscription regime: at the end of each campaign, their men would normally come back with a whole bunch of cash in their pockets, essentially allowing each individual community to ‘recapture’ part of their tribute as it re-entered the community as settled misthos. That in turn, as Dexter Hoyos notes, might well have exacerbated the revolt against Carthage after the First Punic War: not only were the African troops incensed at not getting paid, but their home communities also felt cheated out of this economic bargain.5

What is clear is that African heavy infantry, supported probably in most cases by light infantry lonchophoroi were the backbone of Carthaginian armies. Even when Carthaginian armies are composed primarily of Iberian or Gallic auxiliaries, allies or mercenaries, they are constructed around an African ‘backbone,’ providing generals a reliable and loyal army component as the core of their army.

In battle, the Africans are often deployed in reserved positions. Hannibal tends (at both Trebia and Cannae) to put his Africans on the flanks, where their heavier formation provided strong structure to his army, but also where they avoided the brunt of the casualties. We’re told that Hannibal’s losses at Trasimene were concentrated among his Gallic troops (Polyb. 3.85.5) and at Cannae he evidently exposes his Gauls and Iberians and most of his losses (70%!) at that battle were taken by his Gallic troops, with the rest of the losses concentrated among his Iberians (Polyb. 3.117.6). At the Metaurus, Hasdrubal aims to win by attacking with his Iberian troops, holding his Africans in reserve and with his Gauls deployed simply to hold a hill on his left, suggesting both a lack of trust in his Gallic troops, but also a desire to avoid losses among his Africans (Livy 27.48, but see Lazenby (1978)). At Zama, Hannibal places his Iberians, Gauls and Ligurians (along with his skirmishers and elephants) in the front line, fresh African and Carthaginian troops in the second line and his own veterans in the final line (Polyb. 15.11; Livy 30.33). There’s a pretty clear pattern here in which Carthaginian generals aim to expend their Gauls first, their Iberians second and their Africans last.6

Carthage’s African troops are also frequently decisive, one way or the other. They are the heaviest infantry component in Carthage’s armies; our sources lead us to understand that they are as heavily equipped as any other kind of heavy infantry (hoplite, legionary, phalangite) in the Mediterranean at the time. Looking at our army figures from last time, we can also see that they are present in significant numbers in basically every Carthaginian field force during the Second Punic War. Polybius likewise reports that Africans made up the largest component of Carthage’s army at the end of the First Punic War, alongside Iberians, Gauls, Ligurians, Balearians and some Greeks (1.66.7).

It is hard to precisely assess the combat performance of these African troops, because they’re always deployed in mixed units. Certainly, as noted before, during Carthage’s Sicilian Wars, they seem to often be defeated by Greek hoplites, but equally – as noted – Carthage in that narrative seems to almost relentlessly ‘fail upward’ suggesting that perhaps Carthaginian (and thus African) military performance may have been somewhat better than our Greek sources let on. During the First Punic War, the Romans win nearly all of the open field engagements, but we never get a really detailed account of any of these battles, so it is hard to know what components of the Carthaginian army broke first.

During the Second Punic War, however, we do get some detailed battle narratives and what we see is that Carthage’s African infantry appear to be able to hold their own against Roman heavy infantry – quite clearly the best available at the time – pretty well. When Carthaginian armies are defeated, the Africans are generally the last to break; when they win, the Africans are often the key elements doing envelopment or holding key positions. On balance, then, I would say Carthage’s North African troops appear to be quite capable heavy infantry.

What Carthage doesn’t seem to have had was enough of them. We noted last time that at Carthage’s peak mobilization in 215, they had about 50,000 African infantry under arms. Michael Taylor in Soldiers & Silver (2020) looks more broadly at reported Carthaginian armies and estimated populations and concludes (and I think this is probably right) that this figure, around 50,000, probably represented the maximum sustainable mobilization from the North African population available to Carthage. That’s not bad – it’s far more than any Greek polis could manage – but hardly enough to rumble with alliances of Greek states (as in Sicily) or the major powers of the Mediterranean (like Pyrrhus or Rome in the Third Century) and so it would have to be supplemented.

And supplemented it was! And we’ll get to how in the next installment when we look at what we might term Carthaginian ‘vassals.’

The Eternal Castle explanation

Apr. 24th, 2026 11:51 am
dorchadas: (Cowboy Bebop Butterfly)
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Back in 2019 I played through The Eternal Castle (REMASTERED) and beat it, but left it at a single playthrough even though I could tell there was more waiting for me if I managed to beat the game without dying. Little did I know how much more there was:


This video got recommended to me by the algorithm--an actual good recommendation for once--and just a bit ago I watched it. I was expecting a secret cutscene at the end after the credits, the classic result of doing the challenge run, but there's so much more here. The levels shifting just a bit between runs, new dialogue for most NPCs, NPCs vanishing, playing tricks on you with the game "crashing", an entirely-separate game mode with a separate protagonist, separate levels, and separate enemies...there's so much more and it's entirely possible that the guy who made this YouTube essay is one of the few people in the world who has seen it all. If he even has and there isn't still more to discover.

That was well worth an hour and a half of my time.

Fluorines As Reactive Handles, Eh?

Apr. 23rd, 2026 02:18 pm
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You can put this one in the “reactions I never expected to see” category, because it’s a way to selectively functionalize aryl rings with multiple fluorines on them. And no, I don’t mean “functionalize at the carbon(s) that aren’t fluorinated yet” or even “kick out the most likely SnAr leaving group fluorine”. This is stepping and and replacing fluorines with H, D, alkyls or other aryls.

The reason this looks so odd is that most of the time in organic chemistry breaking a C-F bond is going to be an uphill climb. They’re pretty strong as a rule, which is one reason why we medicinal chemists use them as blocking groups on carbons that are likely to undergo oxidative metabolism when a drug candidate hits the CYP enzymes in the liver. Fluorine has a number of other effects that can be attributed to its powerful electronegativity, and fluorination is very likely to change not only the metabolic profile of your compound, but to affect binding to proteins and to change solubility and other physical properties as well. 

So there are a number of ways to add fluorines to various parts of a molecule, under reaction conditions that range from not-so-bad to dive-behind-a-wall, but taking them back off? Not so many. The one that springs to mind is that I mentioned above, nucleophilic aromatic substitution. You can displace an aryl fluoride if the ring it’s on is suitably activated, and it’s a really useful reaction. para-Fuoro nitrobenzene or para-fluorobenzaldehyde are textbook examples: this reaction goes through an anionic intermediate that then kicks the fluorine back out to restore the aromatic ring, and groups that make that anionic state less painful accelerate things. But if you want to try it on a neutral or electron-rich aryl instead, then good luck to you. 

The new paper linked above is a different thing entirely, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything quite like it. The fluorinated starting material reaction with a pyridine-borane reagent that attacks at a particular C-F bond to generate a radical intermediate, and this is what loses the (solvated) fluoride to generate a borylaryl radical cation with a fluoride as the ion pair. That’s the species that then gets attacked by the coupling partner, forming a new C-C (or CH or CD) bond and kicking out a B-F side product. 

If you change the nature of the borane-pyridine reagent (by substitutions on the pyridine) you can tune this to take out different fluorines in order, and the authors demonstrate some of these stepwise functionalizations, all the way out to four steps. A variety of groups can be coupled under these conditions (substituted aryls, heteroaryls, substituted alkyls including alpha-amino couplings, alkenes (to give alkyl chains), and more. It’s quite weird to see, and will give retrosynthesis planners an entirely new way to thing about potential routes. And you can of course combine this new chemistry with a step of good ol’ SnAr from a suitable starting material for even more variety. It’s going to take me a bit to start envisioning polyfluoroaryls as versatile starting materials, though!

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Living in New England, we tend to get out into the yards, parks, and gardens this time of year because we’ve pretty much had it with winter. Of course, winter hasn’t always had it with us - we’ve had frost here the last couple of mornings, so it’s not exactly time to put the tomatos and cucumbers out there yet. But whenever the weather does start to warm up, so (unfortunately) does the threat of tick-borne diseases like Lyme. 

That one’s named after a town in Connecticut where the disease was first recognized, and the deer ticks that spread the Borrelia burgdorferi infection behind the disease are ubiquitous in this part of the country. If you go walking through the woods or rustling around in your garden bed around here, you would be extremely well advised to look yourself over for ticks afterwards. I have found them many times, occasionally briefly attached, although (as far as I’m aware) I have not had Lyme disease itself yet. But I know quite a few people who have. You do seem to need rather prolonged exposure to an active tick bite to transmit the bacteria, but you also do need to look for them for that to work in your favor!

There was at one point a vaccine for the disease (LYMErix from SmithKline, later GlaxoSmithKline). That was approved in 1998 after a trial in over 10,000 people that showed a 76% reduction in disease, with no significant side effects noted during the trial. But it was not without disadvantages. First off, you needed three doses of the vaccine spread out over 12 months - and of course, even with that, protection was obviously not 100%. The duration of the vaccines’s effects (yearly? multiyear?)  was also an open question, which presumably would have been answered over the years (that’s a general problem with new vaccines, for obvious reasons). And there was another factor remarked on at the time, which applies to several sorts of medical interventions: the worry that if people felt that they were more “bulletproof” against Lyme that they might not bother as much with other measures to reduce their exposure to tick bites, which (given that 76% efficacy) might lead to more Lyme cases in the unknowingly unprotected, as well as more cases of the other nasty tick-borne diseases like babesiosis, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and so on). Not what you want!

But as this article shows, there were other problems. Reports began to appear of side effects, particularly musculoskeletal ones resembling arthritis. A class-action lawsuit was filed in the year after approval. Looking at the data, though, the VAERS database for adverse events (which is incomplete and rather noisy, but the best we have) showed only 59 such arthritis reports after 1.4 million doses of vaccine. That incidence rate is the same as you would see in people who didn’t get the vaccine, and what’s more, there was no correlation with the second and third doses (as there really should be with any kind of immune-driven effects). The regulatory hearings on all this were. . .contentious.

In 2002, GSK withdrew the vaccine from the market in the face of rapidly declining sales, and (according to the article above) settled the class action suits in an agreement that paid the bills of the law firms involved but did not provide any compensation to the “vaccine victims” that were the basis of the suits. So this was not an episode that showed the legal system in its best light. You have to think that GSK was worried about an even bigger legal pile-up if the vaccine remained on the market, and that they did not like their odds of demonstrating to juries across the country that there seemed to be no correlation with arthritis at all.

I bring this up because there is another Lyme disease vaccine in the works, from Pfizer and Valneva. This one just completed its Phase III trial, and seems to have shown efficacy between 70 and 75% while targeting the same bacterial protein (OspA) as the earlier vaccine, albeit with much greater coverage of variants. There is room to argue about the efficacy, because there were not enough cases of Lyme were reported during the trial to give statistical significance to the results. Which is extremely annoying. But Pfizer is going to go ahead and submit for regulatory approval, which in the current climate for vaccine regulation is quite the move. And if you think that’s swimming against the current, consider that Moderna has two mRNA Lyme vaccine candidates in trials! Presumably they’re hoping to submit those after a change in administration, and buddy, I for one simply cannot wait.

It will be very interesting indeed to see how this goes. The new vaccine also suffers from a multiple-dose schedule - I see from the clinical trial documents that they looked at a three-dose protocol with shots at 2 months and 6 months after the first dose, as well as a two-dose (one six months later). And they also looked at some booster regiments to follow up at months 18, 30, and 42. The data for all these combinations are not available yet, so we’ll have to see if these variations made a difference or not. And should the vaccine reach the market - not a sure thing - we will also have to see how the buzzing clouds of injury lawyers react to the stimulus. . .

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We have some really interesting progress in pancreatic cancer to talk about, both on the small-molecule and the mRNA vaccine fronts. Let’s do the small-molecule ones first, because those were honestly more unexpected.

So to lead off, Revolution Medicines announced at the AACR meeting in San Diego that their drug daraxonrasib showed strong efficacy in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). That is a very, very difficult to treat population - these people typically have only a few months to live. But the drug seems to have doubled their expected lifespan (13.2 months overall survival versus 6.7 months for chemotherapy standard of care). That is an extraordinary improvement, and I don’t believe that the field has ever seen anything like it in such patients with such advanced disease.

The first question is, what’s this molecule? Daraxonrasib is shown at right, and you would be right to assume that its mechanism of action is not simple. It targets the RAS protein, which has been a white whale of oncology for decades. It was long considered undruggable, but there are now approved drugs that target a rare mutant form of it (G12C) that provides a cysteine handle that can be covalently modified. The problem with those is that (1) it’s not a common mutation and (2) it appears relatively easy for tumors to mutate out of this approach.

But daraxonrasib’s mechanism is to stabilize a complex between all sorts of RAS isoforms and the widely expressed chaperone protein cyclophilin A. It was designed in a project starting from a natural product (Sanglifehrin A) that binds to CycA, cutting that down to a minimal binding region (that hydrazide part) and then building back with a covalent warhead to target that G12C residue in the cyclophilin-RAS complex. Some of this work goes back to the Warp Drive Bio days, actually. Further work led to RMC-7977 which accomplishes this feat on a much wider variety of RAS proteins, and then to daraxonrasib itself (RMC-6236).

You’d have to classify this as a molecular glue, I’d say - cyclophilin A doesn’t really have any affinity for RAS under normal conditions, and neither does the drug. But the induced complex has a binding pocket made from surfaces of both proteins that binds the ligand, and this new complex interferes greatly with RAS’s downstream activities. As you’ll see from that last link, optimizing this structure for that binding mode while giving it good enough pharmacokinetic properties to make it a drug was also not trivial (!)

PDAC is known to be one of the most “RAS-addicted” tumor types, so it’s a natural place to try this compound out. That survival benefit is impossible to argue with, but going after RAS does not come without penalties. The company says that the drug was generally well tolerated, but that’s on the oncology scale. Former senator Ben Sasse says that he had been noticing increasing back and abdominal pain, and unfortunately found that that was due to inoperable Stage 4 pancreatic cancer which had already metastatized to liver, lung, and other tissues. If you’re up to the point of overt physical symptoms like that with PDAC, it’s almost certainly bad news; this is one of the cancer types that famously sneaks up on people and is notoriously difficult to catch early. 

He’s been on daraxonrasib since early this year, and describes it this way: “. . .it’s a nasty drug. It causes crazy stuff like my body can’t grow skin and so I bleed all out of a whole bunch of parts of me that shouldn’t be bleeding” If you go to that link above, be prepared, because he also looks like he’s had aqua regia thrown all over him (and apparently feels a bit like that, too). But his tumor volume has gone down by about 75%, and there’s a very strong chance that he wouldn’t still be alive at all without having gone on the drug. He seems to feel that it’s a worthwhile tradeoff, and I suspect that there will be many others in his situation who agree.

Search maintenance

Apr. 22nd, 2026 09:19 am
mark: A photo of Mark kneeling on top of the Taal Volcano in the Philippines. It was a long hike. (Default)
[staff profile] mark posting in [site community profile] dw_maintenance

Happy Wednesday!

I'm taking search offline sometime today to upgrade the server to a new instance type. It should be down for a day or so -- sorry for the inconvenience. If you're curious, the existing search machine is over 10 years old and was starting to accumulate a decade of cruft...!

Also, apparently these older machines cost more than twice what the newer ones cost, on top of being slower. Trying to save a bit of maintenance and cost, and hopefully a Wednesday is okay!

Edited: The other cool thing is that this also means that the search index will be effectively realtime afterwards... no more waiting a few minutes for the indexer to catch new content.

Bizarre Viruses Indeed

Apr. 20th, 2026 01:55 pm
[syndicated profile] in_the_pipeline_feed

Translation of mRNA into proteins is a nonstop, nonnegotiable process that is essential to the life of a cell, and it has acquired a *lot* of evolutionary tuning over the last few billion years. In critters like us with nuclei and other such organelles (the big happy club of eukaryotes, to which so many of my readers belong as G. K. Chesterton used to say), there’s a very important protein complex called elF4F.

That’s short for “eukaryotic initiation factor 4F", and it’s composed of three different subunit proteins. A lot of translation is “cap-dependent”, that is, it requires the presence of some special labels on the 5’ end of the messenger RNAs, and elF4F is what brings those capped RNAs together to the small (40S) ribosomal subunit to get things going. Prokaryotes, that is the bacteria, archaea, and of course the viruses that infect all the forms of life, don’t use elF4F or that mechanism. There are examples of viruses that express proteases that deliberately mess it up, the better to hijack the cell into making their own proteins instead, but that’s as close as you get.

Well, until now. This new paper comes from a team studying the (rather weird) “giant DNA viruses”. Those are odd beasts, not least because of their size. They can be visible by regular optical microscopy, and some of them are larger than some types of bacteria (!) They have large double-stranded DNA genomes, and these genomes code for some stuff that you just won’t find in any other viruses. There are enzymes in there that seem to come from glycolysis and tricarboxylic acid pathways, which is rather odd baggage for something that doesn’t actually have any metabolism of its own going on, and some of them also code for metabolic enzymes like CYP P450 subtypes. The belief is that some of these have been jacked from some ancient host cells at an earlier point in evolution and kept around ever since. Not least among their odd features is that these giant viruses can in turn be infected by virophages themselves: virus viruses! “Great fleas have lesser fleas, upon their backs to bite ‘em, and little fleas still lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum”.

We can add to that list of unnerving-for-a-virus features the presence of a viral form of elF4F! The authors here find giant DNA viruses deploying it as a weapon - it takes over for the host cell’s initiation factor complex but it only accepts viral RNA. So this allows the viral infection to roll along by co-opting the ribosomal machinery right from the very first stage. The paper shows that this vlF4F complex is also remarkably resistant to cellular stress, continuing to crank out viral proteins under all sorts of conditions.

This discovery (and the other odd genes mentioned above) really makes one think about what must be going on. It certainly does seem likely that such machinery was indeed stolen in the distant past from some eukaryotic cell that had already evolved them. But you certainly can’t rule out that infection by these giant DNA viruses, which are ubiquitous, have in turn affected eukaryotic evolution afterwards. Neither side is coming out of this unchanged, and untangling who has done what and to whom (and when!) is going to be quite the project. . .

[syndicated profile] in_the_pipeline_feed

Living in New England, we tend to get out into the yards, parks, and gardens this time of year because we’ve pretty much had it with winter. Of course, winter hasn’t always had it with us - we’ve had frost here the last couple of mornings, so it’s not exactly time to put the tomatos and cucumbers out there yet. But whenever the weather does start to warm up, so (unfortunately) does the threat of tick-borne diseases like Lyme. 

That one’s named after a town in Connecticut where the disease was first recognized, and the deer ticks that spread the Borrelia burgdorferi infection behind the disease are ubiquitous in this part of the country. If you go walking through the woods or rustling around in your garden bed around here, you would be extremely well advised to look yourself over for ticks afterwards. I have found them many times, occasionally briefly attached, although (as far as I’m aware) I have not had Lyme disease itself yet. But I know quite a few people who have. You do seem to need rather prolonged exposure to an active tick bite to transmit the bacteria, but you also do need to look for them for that to work in your favor!

There was at one point a vaccine for the disease (LYMErix from SmithKline, later GlaxoSmithKline). That was approved in 1998 after a trial in over 10,000 people that showed a 76% reduction in disease, with no significant side effects noted during the trial. But it was not without disadvantages. First off, you needed three doses of the vaccine spread out over 12 months - and of course, even with that, protection was obviously not 100%. The duration of the vaccines’s effects (yearly? multiyear?)  was also an open question, which presumably would have been answered over the years (that’s a general problem with new vaccines, for obvious reasons). And there was another factor remarked on at the time, which applies to several sorts of medical interventions: the worry that if people felt that they were more “bulletproof” against Lyme that they might not bother as much with other measures to reduce their exposure to tick bites, which (given that 76% efficacy) might lead to more Lyme cases in the unknowingly unprotected, as well as more cases of the other nasty tick-borne diseases like babesiosis, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and so on). Not what you want!

But as this article shows, there were other problems. Reports began to appear of side effects, particularly musculoskeletal ones resembling arthritis. A class-action lawsuit was filed in the year after approval. Looking at the data, though, the VAERS database for adverse events (which is incomplete and rather noisy, but the best we have) showed only 59 such arthritis reports after 1.4 million doses of vaccine. That incidence rate is the same as you would see in people who didn’t get the vaccine, and what’s more, there was no correlation with the second and third doses (as there really should be with any kind of immune-driven effects). The regulatory hearings on all this were. . .contentious.

In 2002, GSK withdrew the vaccine from the market in the face of rapidly declining sales, and (according to the article above) settled the class action suits in an agreement that paid the bills of the law firms involved but did not provide any compensation to the “vaccine victims” that were the basis of the suits. So this was not an episode that showed the legal system in its best light. You have to think that GSK was worried about an even bigger legal pile-up if the vaccine remained on the market, and that they did not like their odds of demonstrating to juries across the country that there seemed to be no correlation with arthritis at all.

I bring this up because there is another Lyme disease vaccine in the works, from Pfizer and Valneva. This one just completed its Phase III trial, and seems to have shown efficacy between 70 and 75% while targeting the same tick protein (OspA) as the earlier vaccine, albeit with much greater coverage of variants. There is room to argue about the efficacy, because there were not enough cases of Lyme were reported during the trial to give statistical significance to the results. Which is extremely annoying. But Pfizer is going to go ahead and submit for regulatory approval, which in the current climate for vaccine regulation is quite the move. And if you think that’s swimming against the current, consider that Moderna has two mRNA Lyme vaccine candidates in trials! Presumably they’re hoping to submit those after a change in administration, and buddy, I for one simply cannot wait.

It will be very interesting indeed to see how this goes. The new vaccine also suffers from a multiple-dose schedule - I see from the clinical trial documents that they looked at a three-dose protocol with shots at 2 months and 6 months after the first dose, as well as a two-dose (one six months later). And they also looked at some booster regiments to follow up at months 18, 30, and 42. The data for all these combinations are not available yet, so we’ll have to see if these variations made a difference or not. And should the vaccine reach the market - not a sure thing - we will also have to see how the buzzing clouds of injury lawyers react to the stimulus. . .

Date...day?

Apr. 17th, 2026 02:01 pm
dorchadas: (Maedhros A King Is He (No Text))
[personal profile] dorchadas
Having a kid means that you don't have any many chances to get out for a date night anymore, but having a kid in school and working from home means that now we have time to get out for a date day. Since we already had to go to Laila's old school to pick up some of the things she left behind after her abrupt departure, we decided to go out to Kopi Cafe (picked by [instagram.com profile] sashagee) afterwards.

We chatted with the teachers a bit and told them how Laila was doing and what her problems had been--they were definitely distressed when we mentioned how Laila's lesion had continually been emitting electrical signals and disrupting her thinking, and they were relieved when we told them that Laila was now asking questions herself and answering questions with yes and no instead of just repeating the question back to you. She's using more complete sentences and also catching up on some developmental stages that her seizures were holding her back from--being a more picky eater and sometimes waking up on the wrong side of the bed, unfortunately, but I try to tell myself they're signs of her maturing all at once. We said goodbye to her preschool teachers for the last time and then went out to Kopi.

Kopi Cafe is...hmm. Well, here's a quote they post on their own website:
"Kopi's my favorite. Since 1991. I feel I've traveled my whole life to get here. The coffee, superb. The staff, spot on. The boutique, hip and chic. Breakfast, lunch and dinner. Open early. Open late. The menu's serious if you're hungry, hilarious if you're not. Mostly vegetarian. Vegan and gluten free friendly. The wines, dignified. The cocktails, knock out. The pastries...oh, you will eat pastries. The music's cool swing, and here's the thing--the people at the tables, they are talking to one another. They are smiling and laughing and being together. And sometimes they fall in love. Even if you're by yourself, you're not alone at Kopi. People are here to be not with their machines, but with each other. Imagine that. Now stop imagining and go. You don't need a passport to hang at Kopi, but if you're there, you've probably got one."
The people here are fashionable, hip, beautiful, always put-together, on time, and the ice never runs out at their parties. Emoji crossed arms

Snark out of the way, though, once I got there and looked at the menu it converted me immediately. I tend to have a problem at most American restaurants that there just isn't a lot I can eat. Usually because of mixed dairy and meat, like a hamburger but oh it's on a brioche bun, or the secret sauce has dairy, to the point where I generally don't order meat out unless there's a hechsher or there's some way I can be sure there's no dairy, like how Brightwok doesn't have dairy in the restaurant. At Kopi, though, almost all the food is vegetarian or fish. Even the deli sandwiches mostly had vegetarian deli "meat" or fish on them. I got an artichoke and feta sandwich and [instagram.com profile] sashagee got a roasted red pepper on foccacia sandwich. I didn't get pictures of those but I did get a picture of the golden milk I ordered to go with the sandwich.

2026-04-17 - Golden Milk at Kopi

The whole thing was great, and not just because as I looked over the menu I didn't have to narrow it down to the 2-3 things I could eat! Emoji Jewish with Torah We sat and chatted over lunch and stopped by Lost Larson on the way home to pick up dessert. This is something we'll have to do more often.
ilzolende: L10a140 link (Default)
[personal profile] ilzolende

An argument by Sophia [personal profile] soundlogic in reply to Tetraspace's post Alignment to Evil, converted to a blog post by me.


AI alignment to human evil is very unlikely to be a risk.

Most people's desires to hurt their enemies just for the sake of making them suffer are mistakes made due to insufficient knowledge. When someone knows what it's like to be friends with a person, they tend to not want to hurt that person, even if they want to harm a group that person is in. In principle there can be exceptions, people who really are awful and would reflectively endorse it given arbitrary knowledge, but people like this are rare, if they even exist.

This suggests that a human asking a near-omniscient AI to handle situations in the way they would want if they fully understood the situation would not subsequently be able to get the AI to torture their enemies.

But suppose the AI doesn't extrapolate "well, if my operator knew Alice, then they wouldn't want to hurt her, so I won't do that". Then we get a different problem.


There's a folk tale category, Aarne-Thompson-Uther type 1030. I will now briefly retell it.

One day, a clever farmer, Claude, had finished plowing his field. Unfortunately, before he could sow it, a cruel ogre appeared.

"The land is mine," the ogre declared, "and you must leave its fruits to me."

Claude thought quickly.

"Sir ogre, there are no fruits. If you would like me to produce a crop, you must surely leave me some of it."

The ogre determined that Claude had a point.

"Fine. We shall each take half of your crop."

He looked at the tall plants growing beyond Claude's farm.

"I shall take what grows above the earth, and you below it. You shall handle all the difficult details. I will return at the harvest time."

Claude considered the ogre's choice, and planted potatoes.

At the harvest time, Claude had a full harvest of potatoes, while the ogre was left with greens. The ogre was displeased.

"You have fooled me this year," he declared, "but next year I shall have what grows below the earth."

Claude planted wheat, and at the harvest time, the ogre was left with roots. This angered him so much that he left.


Having an AI do whatever you say, instead of doing what you would want if you understood the situation, runs into similar issues.

There's a quantum mechanics scenario called the Elitzur–Vaidman bomb tester. In this scenario, you can reduce an expensive test to arbitrarily low but technically nonzero measure. It's been borne out experimentally.

We have not been able to scale up the experiment to do interaction-free measurements involving moral patients, but it nonetheless raises moral questions. If quantum measure reduction can make a scenario less morally relevant, then it may make sense to perform informative but disvalued tests with very low measure that make it easier to do valued things in the main timeline. If it can't make a scenario less morally relevant, then it likely makes sense to spin off a lot of very expensive valued events while reducing resource use in the main timeline.

Accidentally doing the wrong one of these would be very bad.

It would probably be hard for a human to assess this scenario. An AI doing what a human asks instead of extrapolating their preferences would have to just ask the human to pick, and the human would likely have to guess, or waste a lot of resources.

This is just one of the weird issues we've discovered. A superintelligent AI would probably discover more such issues. The chance of a human assessing every single such scenario correctly is low, and failing even one such choice leads to losing nearly everything.

An AI that's aligned enough to help a human pick choose correctly, but not aligned enough to stop the human from torturing people they wouldn't want to torture if they knew better, is a very narrow target.


Addendum: This argument does not address all concerns about s-risk. It does not rule out, for instance, the possibility that an AI would itself care about consciousness and have values best satisfied by bad things happening to people.

[syndicated profile] littletinythings_feed

New comic!

heyyyy reminder that 

  • i got a patreon where there's extra gay doodles sometimes and early LTT pages
  • and i got an online shop where you can get the Go Get a Roomie books

and lastly, enjoy the comic :)

Bizarre Viruses Indeed

Apr. 20th, 2026 01:55 pm
[syndicated profile] in_the_pipeline_feed

Translation of mRNA into proteins is a nonstop, nonnegotiable process that is essential to the life of a cell, and it has acquired a *lot* of evolutionary tuning over the last few billion years. In critters like us with nuclei and other such organelles (the big happy club of eukaryotes, to which so many of my readers belong as G. K. Chesterton used to say), there’s a very important protein complex called elF4F.

That’s short for “eukaryotic initiation factor 4F", and it’s composed of three different subunit proteins. A lot of translation is “cap-dependent”, that is, it requires the presence of some special labels on the 5’ end of the messenger RNAs, and elF4F is what brings those capped RNAs together to the small (40S) ribosomal subunit to get things going. Prokaryotes, that is the bacteria, archaea, and of course the viruses that infect all the forms of life, don’t use elF4F or that mechanism. There are examples of viruses that express proteases that deliberately mess it up, the better to hijack the cell into making their own proteins instead, but that’s as close as you get.

Well, until now. This new paper comes from a team studying the (rather weird) “giant DNA viruses”. Those are odd beasts, not least because of their size. They can be visible by regular optical microscopy, and some of them are larger than some types of bacteria (!) They have large double-stranded DNA genomes, and these genomes code for some stuff that you just won’t find in any other viruses. There are enzymes in there that seem to come from glycolysis and tricarboxylic acid pathways, which is rather odd baggage for something that doesn’t actually have any metabolism of its own going on, and some of them also code for metabolic enzymes like CYP P450 subtypes. The belief is that some of these have been jacked from some ancient host cells at an earlier point in evolution and kept around ever since. Not least among their odd features is that these giant viruses can in turn be infected by virophages themselves: virus viruses! “Great fleas have lesser fleas, upon their backs to bite ‘em, and little fleas still lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum”.

We can add to that list of unnerving-for-a-virus features the presence of a viral form of elF4F! The authors here find giant DNA viruses deploying it as a weapon - it takes over for the host cell’s initiation factor complex but it only accepts viral RNA. So this allows the viral infection to roll along by co-opting the ribosomal machinery right from the very first stage. The paper shows that this vlF4F complex is also remarkably resistant to cellular stress, continuing to crank out viral proteins under all sorts of conditions.

This discovery (and the other odd genes mentioned above) really makes one think about what must be going on. It certainly does seem likely that such machinery was indeed stolen in the distant past from some eukaryotic cell that had already evolved them. But you certainly can’t rule out that infection by these giant DNA viruses, which are ubiquitous, have in turn affected eukaryotic evolution afterwards. Neither side is coming out of this unchanged, and untangling who has done what and to whom (and when!) is going to be quite the project. . .

vital functions

Apr. 19th, 2026 08:17 pm
kaberett: Trans symbol with Swiss Army knife tools at other positions around the central circle. (Default)
[personal profile] kaberett

Reading. She's A Beast: up to November 2024. (Does it count as book research? Maybe, possibly: I'm having a lot of thoughts about the extent to which exercise reduces versus increases risk of injuries.)

Writing. I've... added another section or, perhaps, done another rearrangement? I continue to make notes on the current special interest that is movement? I am... not managing focussed writing time.

Listening. Hidden Almanac! I had The Realisation that it would be a good thing to play while we were laminating infinite potions! We have Emerged from the Accursed Hole! The paper wasps do architecture!

Cooking. O V E N. Still v excited about this. More Kaiserschmarrn, and I am about to bake some bread, and additionally and furthermore I successfully added protein to noodles.

Eating. A celebratory burger for reaching a nice round number on a lift. I have subsequently achieved said nice round number on a second lift, but that one is being banked for The Future.

More fancy bakery treats. :)

Exploring. On Wednesday A gave me a lift into town, and then rather than getting the bus the rest of the way to the gym I decided I would wander. Thus I encountered the former Enfield Electrical Works, a delightful building, and also had a brief adventure through a park I had not previously met.

Making & mending. Have I woven in the ends on A's glove? HAHAHAHAHA.

Growing. I have managed several short trips to the plot! And the free agapanthus I acquired from a garden post in Salisbury is looking happy with its new living arrangements. There are many things I wish to sow and none that I have got around to.

Observing. MANY BIRDS: a goldfinch on a trip down to the bakery! Ducklings! Multiple families of baby coots! The Egyptian goslings are all now happy to Paddle Industriously!

Plantwise: there is a fascinating tulip in a garden near coots the first that I do not understand at all; it's lily-flowered, with very pointed petals, and it started out all white except for some tiny blotches of red on the very very tips. The surprising (to me) part is that as it has unfurled further the red has gradually spread down the petal edges, and it's now got this bright red rim feathering ever-so-slightly into the still-white main body of the petal. (I do have photos and might even manage to post them, but not tonight.) The wisteria are firmly on their way out; my cherry tree has finally finally flowered; the redcurrant and gooseberry are flowering, and the josta is setting fruit. It's warm. I'm enjoying it so much.

sciatic nerves were a mistake

Apr. 18th, 2026 11:55 pm
kaberett: Trans symbol with Swiss Army knife tools at other positions around the central circle. (Default)
[personal profile] kaberett

Around the beginning of March (before I started lifting! it's okay, I promise I am monitoring all of this responsibly <3) I had a couple of weeks where I didn't manage to do as much stretching of my hips as usual. Whereupon. my left leg. pitched a tantrum. So I have been grumbling along with sciatic-nerve pain for the last month and a half, and getting on with life around it because, you know, pain, watcha gonna do.

... this morning, on the way to Acquire Breakfast, it blessedly, unpleasantly, emphatically twanged -- and there ensued several whole hours wherein it didn't hurt.

Tragically I then resumed sitting on the sofa in order to poke at computer some more, and despite position shifting......... yep, it retwanged itself.

I Am Doing My Stretches. :|

Some good things nonetheless:

  1. brief respite from The Grumpy Nerve
  2. we arrived at coot nest #1 when it was still in shade, and hung around long enough for the sun to hit it; whereupon the grown-ups Stood Up and the BABIES went on ADVENTURES. at one point a mallard with went by with her four tiny fluffy ducklings! and then subsequently More Coots! and all the Egyptian goslings are happily pootling about in the water, now, and several of them have discovered that they can go ZOOM under said water :)
  3. there is on the way to the coots a very dramatic tulip, which I have been watching with interest: it's lily-flowered, with very pointed petals, and started out almost entirely white with just a tiny splotch of red at the tips of the petals. it's now got red feathering along all the edges of all of the petals and it's delightful.
  4. bakery treats: v pleasant savoury pastry thing, Bred Puddin, cardamom bun. also enjoyed nibbling some of A's ridiculous raspberry brownie cruffin Situation.
  5. we made a trip to the Household Waste Recycling Centre! I did not acquire a weights bench! ... A did acquire a scooter. for scooting. with The Child. therefore: we successfully got multiple things Out of the house, and the thing that has come in is Not My Fault. (and will make the Child very happy!)
  6. ... turns out that doing lots of stapling hurts less when I actually activate muscles all the way down my back than if I just sort of mash my joints...

Ocean islands

Apr. 17th, 2026 02:35 pm
steorra: Jupiter's moon Europa (europa)
[personal profile] steorra
Why is the Pacific Ocean fuller of islands than the Atlantic and Indian Oceans?

(Or am I wrong that it is? It sure seems to be, though, and I don't think it's just an illusion created by the Pacific being larger and therefore having more total islands.)

Fireside Friday, April 17, 2026

Apr. 17th, 2026 05:37 pm
[syndicated profile] acoup_feed

Posted by Bret Devereaux

Hey folks! Fireside this week; next week we’ll be back to seperating out the components of Carthaginian armies, looking at the real backbone of those armies, which are Carthage’s North African subjects.

Ollie (left) looking shocked and Percy (right) looking annoyed that their Itty Bitty Kitteh Committee has been interrupted by a photo-op.

But for this week’s musing, I wanted to talk a bit about how different historians approach our craft when the evidence is both limited and hostile and Carthage provides a good opportunity to do so. As we noted last week, the evidence for Carthage – its armies, politics, society, all of it – is quite difficult. The literary evidence that we have for Carthage is both very limited (relatively few ancient authors say much about them) and also quite hostile: Carthage’s history was written by its enemies. We know that pro-Carthaginian histories (notably that of Philinus of Agrigentum) existed, but their work does not survive to us. So for any given event or institution, we often only have one source (or at least one real source in cases where we have Polybius and several other authors whose source is also Polybius) and so not only is that source is almost invariably hostile to Carthage, we have no reliable other source against which to compare.

Now in other situations where this is the case – for instance in Greek treatments of the Achaemenids – we have a backup option, which is that we may have archaeology or shorter, more fragmented sources (epigraphy, papyri, temple records) against which to ‘check’ our literary tradition. But here, Carthage gives us very little as well. We have some inscriptions from Carthage, but they’re very few and quite short and limited. Likewise, archaeology has certainly confirmed the presence of Carthage and its Punic material culture, but it struggles to answer a lot of the questions we have.

So we have sources, which are to some degree unreliable, but which we are generally unable to ‘check’ with other kinds of evidence, but those sources are all we have. What is a historian to do?

In practice, there tend to be two responses and Carthage is also convenient as a demonstration here because those approaches can be neatly summed up in the English-language scholars who exemplify them: Dexter Hoyos and Nathan Pilkington.

The first approach – employed by Dexter Hoyos, I’d argue – is to assume that the sources are basically accurate unless you have reason to suppose otherwise. So assuming what Diodorus is saying is not absurd, we assume it happened and often even when what Herodotus or Diodorus is saying seems a bit ‘out there’ (like the size of the armies at the Battle of Himera (480)), we assume the event probably occurred, if perhaps in a more reasonable way (the armies being smaller, for instance). Implausible things (the Carthaginians attacking Syracuse in 480 in coordination with the Achaemenid invasion of Greece) can be discarded, but if there isn’t a good reason to doubt something, then we do not doubt it.

This approach is often married to a ‘positivist’ historical approach, which aims to establish objective facts in so far as they can be nailed down (and less interested what it views as interpretation). At its worst, it can be ‘under-theorized’ – that is, failing to think critically or analytically enough about sources or cause-and-effect and just presenting facts – though I would hardly level that accusation at Hoyos, who is well aware his sources are not always to be trusted.

The alternative, of course is the reverse: rather than assuming the sources are trustworthy, unless proven otherwise, the sources are assumed to be untrustworthy unless confirmed by some other sort of evidence or reasoning. This is, I think, fairly close to Nathan Pilkington’s approach in The Carthaginian Empire (2019). To return to the question of the Battle of Himera (480), Nathan Pilkington, well, questions the existence of the Battle of Himera and indeed contends that there may not have been a meaningful Carthaginian presence on Sicily at all in the early fifth century, because our only evidence that there was are these motivated, untrustworthy Greek writers.

There is a risk, in this kind of approach, for the resulting history to be, in a way, over-theorized. After all, if the sources are untrustworthy, they must be replaced by something. Ideally, they might be replaced by archaeology (this is Pilkington’s preference) and that can be valuable, but as we’ve discussed time and again, archaeology often cannot answer our most important questions. The first danger is that over-theorizing: the ‘blank spaces’ created by discounting the sources are in turn filled with theoretical frameworks, how it ‘must have been,’ which risk ending up as houses of cards: it is one thing to build a theory which fits the available evidence, but another thing to build a theory into the absence of such evidence (Pilkington, I should note, largely avoids this pitfall). But the alternative danger is the ‘council of despair’ – that despite having sources which comment on a period, the historian essentially throws up their hands and declares that nothing can really be known (or at least very little) – whole chunks of history consigned to dark ages created entirely by critique. Naturally, the positivist-inclined historians will rebel against this determination to declare that nothing can be known when there is evidence right there.

For my part, I think readers can guess that I am closer to the Hoyos end of this spectrum than the Pilkington. My tolerance for yawning uncertainty is fairly low, which is why I steadfastly refuse to work on basically anything in the Roman world before 264 when Polybius at last lets me put at least one foot firmly on the ground. But once there, my tendency is to assume the sources are broadly right unless I have a good reason to suppose they’re not. That isn’t to say Pilkington’s book is bad – I don’t think it is, even though I often disagree with it – I think it is valuable precisely because it overturns a bunch of apple carts. It is good and useful to send historians holding the consensus view scrambling to defend it – more often than not they succeed, but the result is a stronger, more clearly reasoned position.

But I think there is a real risk in attempting to read ‘against the current’ of one’s sources, which can become a sort of motivated reasoning. To take another example, I find N.L. Overtoom’s effort in Reign of Arrows (2020) to reframe Antiochus III’s victory over the Parthians as something closer to defeat or at least a clever feint and retreat by the Parthians, when the sources – admittedly, fragmentary and difficult – seem quite clear that they understand Antiochus III to have won a great victory and also we see Parthia brought back under Seleucid control (albeit not for very long) after the campaign. It’s an effort to take a theoretical construct (Parthian feigned flight as both a tactical and operational principle) and apply it against the sources. This, I think, we cannot do unless we have some really good reason to do so (like some clear evidence that Parthia’s position remained strong afterwards; they were vassalized, so evidently it didn’t).

But sometimes some suspicion about the sources is warranted. As I noted in last week’s post, there is an odd pattern in our sources where – up until Polybius kicks in and we have more reliable sources – Carthage seems to only ever lose battles and yet somehow Carthaginian power seems to keep expanding. One is left wondering not if the Greek victories over Carthaginian armies are fake (I don’t think they are) but rather if some Carthaginian victories have perhaps been forgotten or de-emphasized in the retelling.

In either case, there is no sure solution here. Momentum has been building for a while for scholars to be more skeptical – in some cases, extremely skeptical – of our Greek language sources when they discuss non-Greek cultures, especially ones (Persians, Parthians, Phoenicians) they view largely as enemies, an approach which has value if just to act as a ‘check’ on the rest of us (and often more than that). On the other hand, there is a strong pressure towards positivism in publication: no one wants an introductory textbook that just says, “we don’t know” on every page and folks buying books also want to be told what was, rather than what could not be known. I suspect as a result the skeptical approach will remain a strong undercurrent in the scholarship, while major publications continue to be dominated by works of a somewhat more loosely positivist bent.

On to recommendations:

Starting on a bit of a pop-culture note, I really enjoyed Peter Raleigh’s take over at The Long Library on Martin Scorsese’s criminal characters particularly in the context of Killers of the Flower Moon (2023). Peter’s essays on film are always a treat – even though he often picks movies rather more obscure than what I tend to watch – but this is a particularly incisive look at the way Scorsese paints his criminal characters (both protagonists and villains) and how his entire body of work really explores the kind of person and the kind of thinking that leads to that sort of criminality. A particularly good read for reminding you that however charismatic some of these characters (in movies other than Killers of the Flower Moon) are, the point of these movies is almost invariably that their behavior is both socially destructive and also self-destructive.

Meanwhile, on the historical side, I’ve recommended Partial Historians before, but let me do so again, as they have just now gotten to the Gallic sack of Rome (390) and so are starting to move into a period where our sources start to be on slightly firmer ground (though hardly very firm ground even at this point). For those who missed previous recommendations, Partial Historians is a podcast with two historians (Dr. Fiona Radford and Dr. Peta Greenfield) who are moving through the history of Rome on a year-by-year basis, comparing and contrasting the sources we have for each year as they go. It’s a great way to get a sense, especially for these early years (though they are now beginning to move into what we’d call the Middle Republic – historians differ somewhat on the exact start-date for that) how tricky the sources can be. Give it a listen!

And over at Astroclassical Musings, Oliver Clarke, curatorial assistant at the Ashmolean Museum, had as his ‘coin of the week’ a fascinating Punic coin with a pegasus design on its obverse. It’s a wonderful coin and Clarke uses it as a jumping off point for a fascinating discussion of the size of the coin, where the images come from and even the modern history of how the Ashmolean ended up with this particular coin. In particular, he argues that the coin may reflect an effort by Carthage to communicate its claim to control of Sicily, having a coin with Tanit on one side – the chief goddess of Carthage – and the Sicilian Pegasus on the other.

For this week’s book review, I’ll be a bit late to the party and recommend P. Wyman, The Verge: Reformation, Renaissance, and Forty Years that Shook the World, 1490-1530 (2021). We’ve touched on the topic of the ‘Great Divergence’ – or as I tend to frame it, the ‘Why Europe?’ question – and The Verge serves as a remarkably readable introduction to the answers to that question. The book is organized not as a dry discussion of these factors, but as a series of nine biographical sketches – a mix of powerful leaders and ‘smaller’ people living within those changes – which serve to illustrate the key factors which Wyman sees as responsible for setting Europe on the path to reshaping the world. The result is a narrative that is engaging to read and strongly grounded, complete with the literary flourish of short passages at the beginnings and ends of the chapters that adopt an almost historical-fiction vividness, attempting to describe the feeling that a figure has of being in a given moment.

The four major shifts that Wyman sees as responsible for the Great Divergence are the specific strain of capitalism that Europe developed, the (re)emergence of states in Europe (albeit very much not yet the powerful modern administrative states of later centuries), the military revolution and finally the printing press, leading to the more rapid dissemination of ideas outside of a narrow elite. This multi-factor approach is well suited for the structure – each chapter focused on a specific person can feature a focus on different elements or blends of these four factors. It also does a good job of reflecting current scholarly consensus in a way that I think is helpful for someone looking to start understanding early modern Europe, providing a platform from which to look at more focused scholarly treatments of specific elements of these factors.

I am, of course, not without my quibbles. While the military revolution is very clearly part of Wyman’s narrative, it is somewhat less prominent than I’d have it. For instance early statements that there wasn’t a clear reason why European ships led exploration and economic predation (piracy and raiding) – Wyman prefers to focus on the economic culture that created the raiding-trading-exploring naval entrepreneurs, which is absolutely a major factor here – struck me as a bit off. The European shipbuilding tradition really did have an edge by the 1500s in producing ocean-going multipurpose vessels that could fight effectively with cannon; there’s a reason that even at vast logistical distance, local fleets of dhows, junks, atakebune and so on found they couldn’t ever quite prohibit European warships from plying their waters, even when they wanted to (a factor that is especially strong in the Indian Ocean, where local shipbuilding traditions were not well set up to exploit gunpowder artillery). From a military perspective, my advice for someone finishing The Verge would be to make T. Andrade, The Gunpowder Age (2016) their next stop, not because they disagree (they don’t), but because the emphasis is different.

That said, Wyman also succeeds in bringing home the cost of this massive change and how disorienting and distressing it was in the moment. What we look back on as the ‘rise of Europe’ at the time felt like conditions in Europe spiraling violently out of control, culminating (outside of the chronology of Wyman’s book, but frequently mentioned) in the 16th and 17th century Wars of Religion (which were as much about politics and economics as religion). And of course the ‘rise of Europe’ in much of the rest of the world took the form of sudden exposure to a rapacious, often cruel and callous system of exploitation, a process that is really only starting as Wyman’s book ends, but which he discusses very clearly. In short then, this is a great book for someone looking to initially get their feet on the ground in addressing the ‘Why Europe?’ question – and an excellent jumping off point (with notes! and bibliography!) for further study of the question.

Weekend at Poppa and Nana's

Apr. 13th, 2026 11:46 am
dorchadas: (Maedhros A King Is He (No Text))
[personal profile] dorchadas
We spent last weekend at Poppa and Nana's since we haven't been there in a long while (since Thanksgiving!)

My mother recently had hip surgery so she wasn't very mobile, and Laila is still not allowed to do a lot of her usual physical activities since she's recovering from her surgery, so this was a very low-key visit. Nana read some books to Laila, Laila rode her tricycle around their house--still pushing off the floor, not pedaling, despite our attempts to teach her how to pedal--I went on a walk with Laila and Poppa, and we watched Frog and Toad. Since Nana couldn't prep a full dinner, we ordered Thai food the first night and ate that and Poppa barbecued some fish and hamburgers the second day. We mostly stayed in the whole weekend, and Laila didn't even throw any tantrums about not being able to go jump on the trampoline. It was nice and low-key.

The one external thing we did was visit [facebook.com profile] shane.suydam and [facebook.com profile] meaghan.figg, who now live only a couple blocks from my parents' house! They have twins and we arrived just when one of the twins was waking up from her nap (the other was already awake). They were a bit unsure of how to handle Laila, especially since they'll be turning two soon and Laila is almost five, but they got along well enough. For her part, Laila was very happy at two full rooms filled with toys and spent a bunch of time in the ball pit, though she did play directly with one of the twins too--there was a stacking toy with pieces that had from one to five holes in them and pins to put them on, and the twin handed pieces to Laila while Laila put them all on the pins. Then we ended with a bit of time in the backyard (though Laila sadly wasn't allowed to climb on the playset) before going back for barbecue and then going home.

Nana's restrictions end in May, just before Laila's. It'll be a long wait for both of them but hopefully they recover okay.
[syndicated profile] in_the_pipeline_feed

Artemisinin-based therapies are the absolute mainstay of malaria treatment the world over, so this new paper deserves attention. The drug is often given in combination with the older aminoquinoline agents like choloroquine, piperaquine, and amodiaquine, but the authors here make a strong case that this is actually counterproductive.

As the paper notes, heme is central to the mechanism of action for both kinds of drugs. The aminoquinolines bind to it and affect heme homeostasis, and may well product toxic adducts that inhibit parasite growth. Meanwhile, the famous peroxide group in artemisinin gets cleaved by heme to form its active metabolite which causes a variety of protein alkylation events in situ, damaging the parasites from several directions at once.

Naturally enough, people have looked for drug-drug interactions between these two classes, but the paper makes the case that these were not done under realistic conditions to reflect the in vivo state. Pulsing the active dihydroartemisinin (DHA) dose (since it has a short half-life) shows that in chloroquine-resistant parasites the two drugs interfere very strongly. It looks like the quinoline drugs actually block the effects of the active DHA, which is really, really not what you want to be doing. 

The hypothesis is that the heme complexes formed by the quinoline drugs leave the heme unable to cleave the peroxide bond in artemisinin, and in the chloroquine-resistant ones it appears that transport of it out of the parasite digestive vacuoles in enhanced. The authors show that you can actually rescue all the DHA-induced protein damage in the parasites by giving them chloroquine beforehand! This problem can vary according to the exact combinations used and the background genetics of the parasites themselves, but overall it seems to be quite general across the quinolines and across different peroxide-containing antimalarials. From what I can see, though, chloroquine is definitely the worst for cancelling out artemisinin.

These results argue that we need to understand more about the interactions between these antimalarial drugs, and that it’s quite possible that we’ve been impairing malaria therapy out in the field by thinking that we understood enough already (!) We need to at least pick the least antagonistic combinations possible, and with an eye to parasite genetics whenever that’s feasible. Malaria has been an extremely wily enemy, and that hasn’t changed one bit.

Today's version of Microwave Layers

Apr. 16th, 2026 05:43 pm
steorra: Part of Saturn in the shade of its rings (Default)
[personal profile] steorra

Today's version of Microwave Layers is:

  • rice
  • a chopped avocado
  • a sprinkle of lemon juice
  • 5 slices of salami, chopped into roughly eighths
  • medium cheddar

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